Baccarat martingale simulator
This runs the martingale progression on the baccarat Player bet, using the standard 8-deck probabilities — Player 44.62%, Banker 45.86%, tie 9.52%, ties pushing the bet. Preloaded with a $1,000 bankroll and a $10 base bet.
Current game: Baccarat · Player — each round wins with probability 44.62%, paying 1 to 1, and pushes (stake returned) with probability 9.52%.
Drag this first. It changes the conclusion more than anything else on the page.
Advanced — win chance, payout, push, table limits, seed
Rounds are capped at 100,000.
20.9% of sessions finish ahead — typically by $2,220.
84.7% run out of bankroll or can no longer place the next required bet, typically down $530.
Across all 50,000 simulated sessions the expectation is −$82.
Estimated from 50,000 simulated sessions and still converging. Figures carry a margin of error that narrows as the run completes.
Expected versus typical
- Expected ending bankroll
- $918
- Typical ending bankroll
- $520
The average across every simulated session (−$82).
What the middle session experienced (−$480).
These differ because the distribution is lopsided. The average is pulled by outcomes that occur rarely; the median describes the session in the middle.
Outcomes
- Finish ahead
- 20.9%
- Finish behind
- 78.9%
- Bankroll exhausted
- 0.6%
- Strategy could not continue
- 84.0%
Could not place even the minimum bet.
The next required bet exceeded the bankroll or the table maximum, with money still left.
Full detail — percentiles, risk metrics, and the exact figures
Distribution of ending bankroll
- P1
- $10
- P5
- $70
- P25
- $390
- P50
- $520
- P75
- $840
- P95
- $3,320
- P99
- $3,440
Risk
- Average largest bet
- $577
- Median maximum drawdown
- $1,270
- Average longest losing streak
- 7
- Average total wagered
- $6,668
Exact figures
Computed in closed form. No simulation, no margin of error.
- Expected loss per $100 wagered
- $1
- Fair payout for this win chance
- 1.0277 to 1
- Break-even win chance at this payout
- 45.24%
- Chance the next 10 resolved rounds all lose
- 0.11%
- Chance of at least one 10-loss streak within 500 rounds
- 23.89%
- Typical longest losing streak
- 8
A different question from the one above, and a much larger number.
95th percentile: 12.
What the ties change — and what they do not
A tie returns the stake and leaves the doubling ladder exactly where it was, so streak arithmetic runs over resolved hands only. Over 50,000 simulated sessions, 20.9% finish ahead while 84.7% end unable to continue the progression, typically down $530. The expected loss stays at $1 per $100 wagered — exactly the Player bet's house edge, progression or no progression.