Baccarat: Banker versus Player
Banker wins more hands; Player pays without commission. The exact 8-deck arithmetic settles it, and the simulation below is preloaded on Banker — one click on the Player pill runs the same session on the other side.
Current game: Baccarat · Banker — each round wins with probability 45.86%, paying 0.95 to 1, and pushes (stake returned) with probability 9.52%.
Drag this first. It changes the conclusion more than anything else on the page.
Advanced — win chance, payout, push, table limits, seed
Rounds are capped at 100,000.
40.11% of sessions finish ahead — typically by $121.
Across every possible sequence of 500 rounds, the expectation is −$53.
Computed exactly — no simulation involved, so there is no margin of error.
Expected versus typical
- Expected ending bankroll
- $947
- Typical ending bankroll
- $946
The average across every simulated session (−$53).
What the middle session experienced (−$54).
These agree closely here, which means the distribution is roughly symmetric.
Outcomes
- Finish ahead
- 40.11%
- Finish behind
- 59.88%
- Bankroll exhausted
- 0.00%
- Strategy could not continue
- 0.00%
Could not place even the minimum bet.
The next required bet exceeded the bankroll or the table maximum, with money still left.
Full detail — percentiles, risk metrics, and the exact figures
Distribution of ending bankroll
- P1
- $466
- P5
- $605
- P25
- $808
- P50
- $946
- P75
- $1,089
- P95
- $1,288
- P99
- $1,431
Risk
- Average largest bet
- $10
- Median maximum drawdown
- $252
- Average longest losing streak
- 8
- Average total wagered
- $5,000
Exact figures
Computed in closed form. No simulation, no margin of error.
- Expected loss per $100 wagered
- $1
- Fair payout for this win chance
- 0.9731 to 1
- Break-even win chance at this payout
- 46.40%
- Chance the next 10 resolved rounds all lose
- 0.09%
- Chance of at least one 10-loss streak within 500 rounds
- 19.20%
- Typical longest losing streak
- 8
A different question from the one above, and a much larger number.
95th percentile: 12.
The exact edges
Per $100 wagered, Banker's expected loss is $1 and Player's is $1 — both computed exactly from the standard 8-deck probabilities, ties pushing. Banker's 5% commission is priced into its 0.95 payout, and even after paying it, Banker keeps the smaller edge. Neither is favourable: the difference decides only how slowly the same drift works against you.