Roulette martingale simulator
Doubling on red is the textbook martingale. This simulates it on a European wheel (18 red of 37 pockets), preloaded with a $1,000 bankroll and a $10 base bet. Add a table maximum under Advanced to see the wall every real casino puts in the ladder’s way.
Current game: Roulette · red (EU) — each round wins with probability 48.65%, paying 1 to 1.
Drag this first. It changes the conclusion more than anything else on the page.
Advanced — win chance, payout, push, table limits, seed
Rounds are capped at 100,000.
16.8% of sessions finish ahead — typically by $2,410.
88.5% run out of bankroll or can no longer place the next required bet, typically down $530.
Across all 50,000 simulated sessions the expectation is −$166.
Estimated from 50,000 simulated sessions and still converging. Figures carry a margin of error that narrows as the run completes.
Expected versus typical
- Expected ending bankroll
- $834
- Typical ending bankroll
- $500
The average across every simulated session (−$166).
What the middle session experienced (−$500).
These differ because the distribution is lopsided. The average is pulled by outcomes that occur rarely; the median describes the session in the middle.
Outcomes
- Finish ahead
- 16.8%
- Finish behind
- 83.0%
- Bankroll exhausted
- 0.7%
- Strategy could not continue
- 87.8%
Could not place even the minimum bet.
The next required bet exceeded the bankroll or the table maximum, with money still left.
Full detail — percentiles, risk metrics, and the exact figures
Distribution of ending bankroll
- P1
- $10
- P5
- $70
- P25
- $380
- P50
- $500
- P75
- $720
- P95
- $3,500
- P99
- $3,630
Risk
- Average largest bet
- $579
- Median maximum drawdown
- $1,270
- Average longest losing streak
- 7
- Average total wagered
- $5,982
Exact figures
Computed in closed form. No simulation, no margin of error.
- Expected loss per $100 wagered
- $3
- Fair payout for this win chance
- 1.0556 to 1
- Break-even win chance at this payout
- 50.00%
- Chance the next 10 resolved rounds all lose
- 0.13%
- Chance of at least one 10-loss streak within 500 rounds
- 26.45%
- Typical longest losing streak
- 8
A different question from the one above, and a much larger number.
95th percentile: 12.
The ladder against the wheel
Over 50,000 simulated sessions, 16.8% finish ahead and 88.5% cannot place the next doubled bet, typically down $530. The expected loss is $3 per $100 wagered — the single-zero wheel's 1/37, untouched by the progression. A typical session's longest losing streak is 8 spins; each loss doubles the required bet, and the ladder only has to hit one streak it cannot afford.